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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Candle Hints at Down Move
Talking Points:
- GBP/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 181.37, 179.30, 177.62
- Resistance: 184.27, 186.34, 187.79
The British Pound remains stuck in a familiar range against the Japanese Yen but a Shooting Star candle now hints a downswing may be ahead. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracementat 184.27 exposes the 76.4% level at 186.34. Alternatively, a turn below the 181.37-79 area (February 6 high, 23.6% Fib expansion) opens the door for a test the 38.2% threshold at 179.30.
Prices are too close to resistance to justify entering long from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests that taking up the short side is premature. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Bitcoin Metrics Continue to Increase
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Bitcoin is trading mostly flat on the day. After opening at $ 233.00, prices dipped to a daily low of $ 227.77 before rebounding and recovering all the losses. We are currently quoted at $ 232.00 on BTC-E, compared to $ 238.19 on OKCoin and $ 238.39 on BitStamp.
For potential breakout points and support/resistance levels, take a look at our yesterday roundup. With the market continuing to trade in a slow and unpredictable fashion, lets take a look at some of the important bitcoin metrics.
Unlike the price of BTC, which has been in the doldrums for over a year now, bitcoin metrics continue to trend higher. Yesterday the largest online wallet provider Blockchain.info reported its 3 millionth bitcoin wallet! This is roughly double the figures reported 1 year ago. Speaking to Coindesk, the CEO Peter Smith shared another interesting statistic, approximately 140 percent year-over-year growth in the number of transactions. He’s talking about the transactions under Blockchain.info here.
But even the figure for overall bitcoin transactions is up, albeit at a much slower clip. The number of transactions excluding popular addresses reached a new high of 105,562 this January. This compares to a high of 93,392 during December of 2013. Today that figure is at around 97,000 transactions. But more importantly, as can be seen on the link below, the trend is pointing upward, with the average number of transactions during 2013 floating around 60,000, compared to around 80,000 per day since the start of 2015.
Other bitcoin metrics are also going up. Venture capital investments increased by 342% last year to $ 335 million. As reported by payment processor BitPay, the number of merchants accepting bitcoin reached 100,000 in December of last year. At the same time, the number of merchants under BitPay’s umbrella passed the 50,000 mark. BitPay now accounts for 53% of all merchants accepting bitcoin.
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Bitcoin Reverses Some Losses as Indecisiveness Continues
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Bitcoin reversed most of the losses accrued during yesterday’s trading session. After opening at $ 229.12, BTC/USD first fell to retest yesterday’s low near $ 225. After being repelled by the bulls, prices rallied over $ 8 dollars and hit a daily high of $ 233.94. We closed right below the highs at $ 233.23 on BTC-E. Prices are not far off on rival exchanges with both OKCoin and BitStamp quoting $ 239 per coin.
As can be seen on the chart above, bitcoin is currently trading between the 50% and 61% retracements of yesterday’s move. Today’s reversal is somewhat expected. In my article yesterday I cautioned against putting too much faith in a continuation of the decline. Yesterday’s daily range was relatively smaller when compared to previous breakout instances signalling that the breakout may fizzle out. For more on this take a look at our yesterday roundup.
With the general market indecisiveness, it’s better to wait on the sidelines until a clear move materializes. On the top end, the $ 240 resistance may present some challenges for the bulls. But to generate a sustainable rally, BTC/USD will need to take out $ 266 per coin. A move above $ 266 could propel prices toward the $ 300 round figure. This is an important swing high for BTC, marking the high of the last major rally back in January. A breakout beyond here would extend the gains, possibly to the next resistance at $ 334.
On the lower end, the first potential support can be found between $ 220 and $ 225. A clearing of this area (not just a brief spike below) may end the current rally. But to jump-start a new downtrend, bitcoin will need to take out the February 1st swing low at $ 208 per coin.
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International Economic Preview For the Week of February 23-27
The following news items will have a disproportionate impact on the markets next week.
Monday
US Existing Home Sales: the US housing market is still in the doldrums as price increases, tougher mortgage standards, weaker household formation and high levels of student debt all take their toll.
Tuesday
EU Inflation: the slow and steady downward move of this number to its recent negative readings are what finally prodded the ECB to begin an asset purchase program. With gas prices dropping sharply over the last 6-9 months, these numbers should continue to be negative.
China’s Flash Markit Number: the Chinese industrial slowdown has been the primary driver of the worldwide weakness in commodity prices (save oil’s drop). As China is trying to change the composition of its growth to a more consumer oriented structure, expect these numbers to continue to print right around the 50 level.
Wednesday
US News Home Sales: see comments above for US existing sales.
Thursday
Canada, US and Japanese inflation numbers: overall weak inflation numbers across the globe are causing problems and concerns for central banks and economists. Canada is heavily dependent on oil exports, so energy’s price drop is more of an issue. But weak numbers from the US and Japan are also concerning. While they give the Fed more room to maneuver from a policy perspective, they also indicate an overall weakness in demand. And Japan’s weaker price picture adds more pressure on Abenomics supporters.
UK GDP, Second Reading: the UK has been growing at a solid rate for over a year, and the latest reading simply continued the trend. Recent numbers from Markit support continued expansion. While small revisions are always possible, major swings in this figure are unlikely.
Friday
US GDP: the initial read of US GDP for 4Q was 2.6% — a pretty big dip from the 5%+ pace of 3Q. Recent news has confirmed the slower rate of growth.
Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies. You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer
Greece Kicks the Can again, Euro Only Benefits if Focus Turns to Data
Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral
- The retail crowd remains net-short EURUSD, but has taken the dips as an opportunity to reduce shorts.
- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the Euro, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a Euro currency basket.
After a week filled with doubt and uncertainty, the Euro was able to look past tumultuous headlines surrounding the Greek-Eurogroup debt negotiations, and finish mostly unchanged against a basket of its major counterparts. On the extremes, EURAUD fell by -1.15% and EURCAD gained +0.55%, while in between EURGBP slipped by -0.14% and EURUSD edged lower by -0.11%. Needless to say, these price movements aren’t exactly the signs of the wheels falling off the Greek negotiations, or an existential crisis about the fate of the Euro entering the discussion.
Traders, having already embraced one of the most bearish views of the Euro on record – having entered the week with 194.6K net-short contracts on the books, just shy of the all-time high of 214.4K net-shorts set during the week ended June 5, 2012 – may have simply reached an exhaustion point for interpreting Greek-related headlines. With short positions having been marginally reduced for the week ended February 17 (down to 185.6K net-short contracts), traders may be best suited to take advice from one of the legends, George Soros: “The worse a situation becomes the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside.”
Lingering concerns over how the Greek agreement with the Eurogroup plays out are holding the Euro back. The extension agreement kicks the can down the road for four months, eliminating an immediate insolvency concern, but does little to address the ongoing liquidity crisis faced by Greek banks. Estimates suggest that some €100bn have been withdrawn from Greek banks over the past three-months, leaving the Greek banking system wholly-reliant on the European Central Bank’s emergency lending assistance (ELA) facility. For now, with the possibility that the ECB restricts ELA access (like it did to Cypriot banks in 2013), traders may be keeping their bearish Euro positions on the table with an eye towards capital controls and bank holidays hitting Greece over the coming weeks.
If only markets were able to shift their attention away from Greece, might the Euro be able to benefit. As we saw in the first set of ECB minutes released on Friday, the debate within was not only about the timing of a QE program (non-news; we know it begins in March) but also about what conditions could necessitate the end of the German-despised, expansionary program. This is a conversation worth paying attention to, especially now that incoming data from the Euro-Zone is improving at a solid pace.
The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Euro-Zone hit +56.1 at the end of the past week, its highest level since March 7, 2013 (+56.5), while blowing out to its widest spread against its US equivalent since September 2010. In other words, relative to expectations, Euro-Zone data has been outpacing US data at its best clip in nearly four and a half years. Accompanying the improved data have been measures of rate expectations backing off all-time extremes, too. Morgan Stanley’s ‘months to first rate hike’ index (MSM1KEEU) resides at 45.6 (suggesting a December 2018 rate hike), down from levels seen over the past few weeks suggesting that rates would remain unchanged until March 2019.
The Euro-Zone is still a bonafide mess, politically and economically, but the data has undoubtedly been more positive in recent weeks. Inflation expecations have steadied too: the 5-year, 5-year inflation swaps (FWISEU55) ended the week at 1.603%, just above the four-week/20-day average of 1.586%. But for lingering concerns over Greece, the current 185.6K net-short contracts among speculators looks overdone – providing a viable source of tinder for a short covering rally. –CV
Bitcoin Trading Flat in $3 Range
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Bitcoin is trading flat today. The cryptocurrency opened the day at $ 237.79. From here we rallied $ 1 dollar to $ 238.99, then fell $ 3 dollars to a daily low of $ 235.90 before eventually stabilizing around the $ 237 figure on BTC-E. As usual, BTC prices on other exchanges are trading at a small premium with both OKCoin and BitStamp at $ 244 a piece.
If prices continue to trade flat until the daily close (1 hour to go), today’s range of $ 3.09 dollars will be the lowest daily range since May of 2014. Previous periods of low volatility have been followed by breakouts. The last time the daily range was trading near today’s low values was February 12th at $ 4.10 dollars. On February 13th the range exploded to $ 19 dollars as bitcoin closed the day $ 13 dollars higher. Keep in mind that a potential breakout may happen on either side.
What are some of the support/resistance levels if prices start to move? On the top end, $ 240 is weak resistance and a move above here may not have much follow-through. This is followed by the notable $ 266 figure. Another test of $ 266 will likely lead to a break higher and a move towards $ 300. This round figure is another important milestone for BTC because this is where the last major bitcoin rally stopped back in January ($ 303 to be exact). A breakout higher could propel BTC/USD towards the $ 334 swing high. On the bottom, a break below $ 210 will likely mean an end to the current rally. A move below the $ 200 round figure may start a renewed downtrend for bitcoin. This year’s low at $ 162 is another potential support level/breakout point. A move below would intensify the losses.
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Weekly indicators: a Siberian chill to coincident indicators edition
Monthly January reports were highlighted by continued positive leading indicators, including an increase in housing permits. Housing starts declined. Both the Empire and Philly manufacturing indexes were lower but still positive. Industrial production increased, and capacity utilization was flat, but December’s reports were revised down. Producer prices were down significantly.
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy. The indicators will confirm a trend or indicate a switch in trend well before monthly reports, and are a way to mark one’s opinions to market on a regular basis. I list the data and try to keep commentary sparse, so you can draw your own conclusion.
As I have done recently, I am generally going in order of long leading, then short leading, then coincident indicators.
Interest rates and credit spreads
- 4.64% BAA corporate bonds up +0.11%
- 2.11% 10 year treasury bonds up +0.10%
- 2.53% credit spread between corporates and treasuries up +0.01%
Interest rates for corporate bonds rose further from their 50+ year low set three weeks ago. After a possible once-in-a-lifetime low of 1.47% in July 2012, Treasuries rose to over 3% in late 2013, then fell through 2014 and into 2015 to back below 2%, before rising back above 2% this week. Corporate bond yields had trended generally sideways since May 2014, before breaking out to the downside 7 weeks ago. Spreads widened in recent months, a warning of near-term weakness, but have narrowed in the last three weeks and are only slightly negative now.
Housing metrics
Home Sales and Prices from DataQuick:
- +4.2% sales YoY, up +0.2% (1 month rolling average)
- +3.0% prices YoY, down -0.5% (1 month rolling average)
YoY sales were positive for the 14th week in a row, while prices appreciation has continued.
Mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association:
- -7% w/w purchase applications
- +1% YoY purchase applications
- -16% w/w refinance applications
YoY purchase applications established a “less awful” trend in the latter part of 2014, and after four straight week of being positive, were negative again this week.
Real estate loans, from the FRB H8 report:
- up +0.2% w/w
- up +3.3% YoY
Loans turned up at the end of 2011, turned down in late 2013, but have remained positive to sharply positive since April 2014.
Money supply
M1
M1
- -0.4% w/w
- +2.1% m/m
- +8.5% YoY Real M1
M2
- -0.1% w/w
- +1.1% m/m
- +5.5% YoY Real M2
At the time of the last flight to safety (from Europe) in January 2012, YoY Real M1 made a high of about 20%, and YoY Real M2 made a high of about 10.5%. Growth in both then decelerated. Real M2 made a new 2 year low at the beginning of 2014. Both Real M1 and Real M2 improved substantially since, and both remain firmly in positive territory.
Employment metrics
Initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims
- 283,000 down -21,000
- 4 week average 283,250 down -6,500
Initial claims remain well within the range of a normal economic expansion, as does the 4 week average.
The American Staffing Association Index
- Down -1 to 96.
- Up +5.63% YoY.
The YoY comparison has generally been positive to strongly positive since last spring.
Tax Withholding
- $ 138.7 B for the first 13 days of February vs. $ 130.7 B one year ago, up +$ 8.1 B or +6.2%
- $ 193.1 B for the last 20 reporting days ending Thursday vs. $ 181.4 B one year ago, up +$ 11.9 B or +6.4%
In the last half of 2014, virtually all readings were positive. The last 20 days are within the range of past positive readings.
Oil prices and usage
- Oil down -$ 1.97 to $ 50.81 w/w
- Gas up +$ 0.08 to $ 2.27 w/w
- Usage 4 week average YoY +3.5%
The price of gas may have bottomed three weeks ago. The 2010-2013 Oil choke collar has been broken, and usage has been responding in a big way.
Consumer spending
- Johnson Redbook +3.2% YoY
- Gallup daily consumer spending 14 day average at $ 81, down -$ 8 YoY
Once again, the Gallup report is negative, and increasingly so. In 2013 and early 2014 the Johnson Redbook YoY was between from +2% to a high over +4%. In the second half of 2014, the range increased to +3.5% to +5%. It has fallen out of that range in 4 of the last 5 weeks. This is particularly concerning since YoY comparisons are a little suspect now, since one year ago was the worst of the “polar vortex” decline.
Steel production from the American Iron and Steel Institute
Steel production over the last several years has generally been in a decelerating uptrend. Since last spring, they have alternated between slightly positive and slightly negative. This week was again particularly negative.
Transport
Railroad transport from the AAR
Railroad transport from the AAR
- +18,100 carloads up +6.7% YoY
- -200 intermodal units down -0.1% YoY
- +17,800 total loads up +3.5% YoY
Shipping transport
- Harpex up +6 to 484 (4 year high)
- Baltic Dry Index down -17 to 513 (3 year low)
Rail traffic made a new all time high seven weeks ago. Three weeks ago it had rare negative comparisons, but has come back since. The BDI has declined sharply in the several months. On the other hand, Harpex has turned up sharply in the 6 weeks. In the longer term, shipping rates bottomed about 2 years ago and have been in a slow and variable uptrend since, although the Baltic index shows signs of breaking that to the downside. This is probably because Harpex is primarily container shipping, and the BDI is primarily single hull shipping (e.g., oil).
Bank lending rates
- 0.249 TED spread down -0.01 w/w
- 0.174 LIBOR up +0.02 w/w (1 year high)
LIBOR has risen sharply from its post-recession low set in May and made another new one-year high this week. The TED spread moved generally sideways with a slight upward trend in the last 6 months of 2014, rising off its November 2013 low. It has risen further in the last month and made another 18 month high one week ago. While there has been enough of an increase for me to score these as negative, they need to be kept in perspective. The move in the last months (probably mainly due to the latest Euro-crisis) has been pale compared with the moves before the Great Recession.
Commodity prices
JoC ECRI
JoC ECRI
- Down -0.27 to 100.64 w/w
- Down -21.04 YoY
BBG Industrial metals ETF
Commodity prices rebounded off a possible long term low three weeks ago. This is still probably due to international weakness, and mainly about oil. Industrial metals were a component of ECRI’s original short leading weekly index, and so can confirm or contrast with oil prices. Industrial metals have generally been declining for the last 3 years, and made a new low three weeks ago, and have moved generally sideways since.
SUMMARY:
Negative coincident indicators continued over from last week.
Among long leading indicators, yields on corporate bonds and treasuries increased slightly, reflecting an abatement of immediate deflationary concerns, but they are still positive. Money supply remains quite positive. Real estate loans, and house sales as reported by DataQuick were positive. Mortgage applications were back in negative territory again this week.
The short leading indicators were mixed. Oil prices, industrial metal prices and commodities more broadly all declined slightly. Spreads between corporate bonds and treasuries also remained slightly negative. Temporary staffing and gas prices and usage remained positive, and initial jobless claims remain within a very positive range.
Coincident readings were much more negative. Consumer spending as measured by Gallup was negative yet again, although Johnson Redbook had a more positive week. Tax withholding, Rail, and Container shipping were all positive. On the other hand, Steel production and single hull shipping were negative. The TED spread backed off slightly, while LIBOR was slightly negative.
The big negative is that we are seeing YoY negative comparisons with some of the worst readings last year. Still, with the exception of commodities, generally the long and short leading indicators are positive
Have a nice weekend!
Weekly Trading Forecast: Greece Offers Limited Euro Lift, Dollar Focuses on Yellen
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The Dollar is at risk of breaking its record string of monthly gains at the close of the coming week.
The British Pound is likely to riseagainst the US Dollar as ebbing Greece-inspired worries see firming Bank of England rate hike bets return to the forefront.
Gold prices are lower for a fourth consecutive week with the precious metal off more than 2.4% to trade at $ 1199 ahead of the New York close on Friday.
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Bitcoin Bounces Off $240 Again
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Bitcoin bounced off the $ 240 resistance two times today. After opening the day at $ 236.10 BTC rallied to a high of $ 240 flat. However as soon as prices hit the mark, a bout of selling took BTC/USD to a daily low of $ 231.67. From here bitcoin tried to break the level a second time but failed again, this time reaching a swing high of $ 241.42. Here’s a 4 Hour chart that shows the last couples of attempts to break the $ 240 mark.
The longer prices push on $ 240, the more odds increase that we will see a breakout. But even in that case, it’s not clear that BTC would have much follow-through. To spark a sustainable rally, we may need to take out $ 266 per coin. On the bottom, a break below $ 210 will likely spell an end to the current rally. A move lower below the $ 200 round figure may trigger a new downtrend for bitcoin prices.
We have two smaller news items today. First, more security issues for bitcoin companies. Poker site ”Seals with Clubs” decided to close its doors today, citing ”security issues”. The firm didn’t elaborate on the issues but informed users that BTC withdrawals will be available. Furthermore, as part of the closure, some assets will be transferred to chairman Bryan Micon in order to facilitate the creation of a new bitcoin poker platform based in Antigua.
There is no clear winner in the elections for the Bitcoin Foundation as none of the candidates got the needed 50% of votes. The top four will square off in a new voting round: Olivier Janssens 46.7%, Jim Harper 41.2%, Bruce Fenton 30.9% and Michael Perklin 30%. The election will take place from Tuesday, February 24, 2015 to Friday, February 27, 2015 at 11:59pm EST. The winners will be announced on Saturday, February 28, 2015 on the foundation blog. If two candidates don’t receive at least 50% of the vote again, then there will be another voting cycle.
The Bitcoin Foundation doesn’t have any direct influence on the decentralized BTC network. But the Foundation does pays the bitcoin developers who work on the software underpinning the network.
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XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 20, 2015
EUR-USD took a fresh clobber, triggering stops through 1.1350 before extending to an eight-day low at 1.1303 after breaching recent lows at 1.1319-22. The move also marks a decisive break of the 50-day moving average at 1.1355. Markets are still waiting Greece’s negotiations with the Eurozone, while the dollar’s yield advantage pushed out back above 170 bp in the 10-year T-note versus Bund differential. Fed’s Bullard said he is worried markets may view the Fed as falling behind the curve, and a WSJ article yesterday postulated that this week’s FOMC minutes weren’t as dovish as they appeared on closer inspection. Sterling, meanwhile, traded softer, partly in reaction to sub-forecast retail sales data out of the UK and partly as a consequence of remarks by BoE MPC member McCafferty, who expressed some concern about the pound’s strength (which is trading at seven-year highs against the euro), in an interview in the Independent newspaper today. USD-JPY ebbed back to the 118.60-70 area as the pair reverses some of yesterday’s gain.
[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD took a fresh clobber, triggering stops through 1.1350 before extending to an eight-day low at 1.1303 after breaching recent lows at 1.1319-22. The move also marks a decisive break of the 50-day moving average at 1.1355, though interestingly the average has turned upward sloping over the last for the first time since last July, indicating an overall flattening out in trend. Markets are waiting on yet another Eurogoup meeting today to discuss Greece with the spectre of Grexit still a possibility (though unlikely). Fundamentals, meanwhile, remain bearish for EUR-USD, with the dollar’s yield advantage remaining a bearish driver. The 10-year T-note yield differential versus the Bund nudging back above 170 bp today, back near Wednesday’s cycle peak near 175 bp. Concern about the Ukraine ceasefire agreement failing is an added concern for the euro. EUR-USD down focus is now on 1.1302 (Feb-11 low) and 1.1300.
EUR-USD took a fresh clobber, triggering stops through 1.1350 before extending to an eight-day low at 1.1303 after breaching recent lows at 1.1319-22. The move also marks a decisive break of the 50-day moving average at 1.1355, though interestingly the average has turned upward sloping over the last for the first time since last July, indicating an overall flattening out in trend. Markets are waiting on yet another Eurogoup meeting today to discuss Greece with the spectre of Grexit still a possibility (though unlikely). Fundamentals, meanwhile, remain bearish for EUR-USD, with the dollar’s yield advantage remaining a bearish driver. The 10-year T-note yield differential versus the Bund nudging back above 170 bp today, back near Wednesday’s cycle peak near 175 bp. Concern about the Ukraine ceasefire agreement failing is an added concern for the euro. EUR-USD down focus is now on 1.1302 (Feb-11 low) and 1.1300.
[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY ebbed back to the 118.60-70 area as the pair reverses some of yesterday’s gain. Trade had been quiet in Tokyo in the absence of many centres in Asia that are closed for the Lunar New Year. Yesterday’s high at 119.18 provides a near-term resistance point. We still remain USD-JPY bullish in the bigger picture, as the Fed and BoJ should be sufficiently contrasting to the favour of the dollar, even in view of the more dovish than expected tone of the FOMC minutes this week and with the BoJ’s Kuroda saying that further stimulus was not imminent.
USD-JPY ebbed back to the 118.60-70 area as the pair reverses some of yesterday’s gain. Trade had been quiet in Tokyo in the absence of many centres in Asia that are closed for the Lunar New Year. Yesterday’s high at 119.18 provides a near-term resistance point. We still remain USD-JPY bullish in the bigger picture, as the Fed and BoJ should be sufficiently contrasting to the favour of the dollar, even in view of the more dovish than expected tone of the FOMC minutes this week and with the BoJ’s Kuroda saying that further stimulus was not imminent.
[GBP, USD]
Sterling is trading softer, partly in reaction to sub-forecast retail sales data out of the UK and partly in reaction to remarks by BoE MPC member McCafferty, who expressed some concern about the strength of sterling, which is trading at seven-year highs against the euro, in an interview in the Independent newspaper today. This is quite notable as he is a relative hawk at the Committee, having been one of the two dissenters voting in favour of hiking rates from August to December last year. Cable traded to a two-day low at 1.5352 after dropping from levels around 1.5430, extending the correction from Wednesday’s near two-month peak at 1.5480. UK January retail sales dipped 0.3% m/m in official data, below the median for -0.2%, which is largely a hangover after very robust sales in November, prompted by the first U.S.-style black Friday event in the UK, and unexpected strength in December. The outlook for the sector is good with average household incomes accelerating on the back of trending improvement in the labour market. We still favour selling EUR-GBP with the ECB commencing QE in March, anticipating the cross to grind lower an test of 0.7000 in time.
Sterling is trading softer, partly in reaction to sub-forecast retail sales data out of the UK and partly in reaction to remarks by BoE MPC member McCafferty, who expressed some concern about the strength of sterling, which is trading at seven-year highs against the euro, in an interview in the Independent newspaper today. This is quite notable as he is a relative hawk at the Committee, having been one of the two dissenters voting in favour of hiking rates from August to December last year. Cable traded to a two-day low at 1.5352 after dropping from levels around 1.5430, extending the correction from Wednesday’s near two-month peak at 1.5480. UK January retail sales dipped 0.3% m/m in official data, below the median for -0.2%, which is largely a hangover after very robust sales in November, prompted by the first U.S.-style black Friday event in the UK, and unexpected strength in December. The outlook for the sector is good with average household incomes accelerating on the back of trending improvement in the labour market. We still favour selling EUR-GBP with the ECB commencing QE in March, anticipating the cross to grind lower an test of 0.7000 in time.
[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF has posted a new high for a fourth consecutive day in making 1.0810. The intervening hand of the SNB was rumoured to have been seen on Thursday. The peak today is the highest level seen since the SNB abandonment of the franc cap on Jan-15. The SNB had also been rumoured to have intervened on Feb-5 as part of its defence of its alleged ‘soft floor’ at 1.0500. Swiss trade data for January, released yesterday, showed a 0.8% drop in exports, although the data won’t have fully reflected the impact of the sharp franc appreciation that occurred mid-month.
EUR-CHF has posted a new high for a fourth consecutive day in making 1.0810. The intervening hand of the SNB was rumoured to have been seen on Thursday. The peak today is the highest level seen since the SNB abandonment of the franc cap on Jan-15. The SNB had also been rumoured to have intervened on Feb-5 as part of its defence of its alleged ‘soft floor’ at 1.0500. Swiss trade data for January, released yesterday, showed a 0.8% drop in exports, although the data won’t have fully reflected the impact of the sharp franc appreciation that occurred mid-month.
[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD clocked an 11-day high yesterday at 1.2559, since settling back under 1.2500. Upside momentum has flagged since making the major trend peak at 1.2799 on Jan-29, with the Canadian dollar finding something of an underpinning amid a backdrop of steadier oil prices. Yield differentials still remain in the U.S. dollar’s favour, however, and we expect this should curtail USD-CAD’s downside. Technical support levels is at 1.2350-62 (which encompasses range lows). USD-CAD’s August 2009 high at 1.3063 provides an upside focus.
USD-CAD clocked an 11-day high yesterday at 1.2559, since settling back under 1.2500. Upside momentum has flagged since making the major trend peak at 1.2799 on Jan-29, with the Canadian dollar finding something of an underpinning amid a backdrop of steadier oil prices. Yield differentials still remain in the U.S. dollar’s favour, however, and we expect this should curtail USD-CAD’s downside. Technical support levels is at 1.2350-62 (which encompasses range lows). USD-CAD’s August 2009 high at 1.3063 provides an upside focus.
