Energies 2012, 5, 2989-3018; doi:10.3390/en5082989
energies
ISSN 1996-1073
www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
Article
Exploring Malaysia’s Transformation to Net Oil Importer and
Oil Import Dependence
Yudha Prambudia * and Masaru Nakano
Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, Collaboration Complex,
4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8526, Japan; E-Mail: nakano@sdm.keio.ac.jp
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: prambudia.yudha@a6.keio.jp;
Tel.: +81-45-564-2518; Fax: +81-45-562-3502.
Received: 4 May 2012; in revised form: 26 July 2012 / Accepted: 31 July 2012 /
Published: 10 August 2012
Abstract: Within ASEAN, Malaysia is a major oil-exporting country; however, it is
expected to become a net oil-importing country in the near future. This issue brings
concerns over Malaysia’s energy security, particularly on the aspect of oil import
dependency. This is because its transportation and industrial sectors are still heavily
dependent on oil products. By simulating dynamic interplays between developments in
Malaysia’s oil sector and its economy sectors, this study explores the possible years of the
transformation and the extent to which it will be dependent on oil import. Four scenarios
related to enhanced oil recovery, exploration and production investment, subsidy
elimination and technology advances are considered for the simulation. In isolation, the
subsidy elimination scenario provides the best result. However, if all scenarios are
considered simultaneously, an undesired effect emerges. The earliest that Malaysia is
expected to become a net oil-importing country is 2012 and the latest is 2021. Malaysia’s
dependence on oil imports is expected to continue increasing. In all scenarios, the shares of
oil import in the total supply rise to above 90% in 2030, with the highest share at 97%.
Keywords: net oil importer; oil import dependence; energy security; simulation; Malaysia
Abbreviations:
API: American Petroleum Institute L: Litre
BAU: Business as usual (scenario) MMBOE: Million barrels of oil equivalent
bbl/d: barrel per day MMSTB: Million stock tank barrels
OPEN ACCESS
energies
ISSN 1996-1073
www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
Article
Exploring Malaysia’s Transformation to Net Oil Importer and
Oil Import Dependence
Yudha Prambudia * and Masaru Nakano
Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, Collaboration Complex,
4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8526, Japan; E-Mail: nakano@sdm.keio.ac.jp
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: prambudia.yudha@a6.keio.jp;
Tel.: +81-45-564-2518; Fax: +81-45-562-3502.
Received: 4 May 2012; in revised form: 26 July 2012 / Accepted: 31 July 2012 /
Published: 10 August 2012
Abstract: Within ASEAN, Malaysia is a major oil-exporting country; however, it is
expected to become a net oil-importing country in the near future. This issue brings
concerns over Malaysia’s energy security, particularly on the aspect of oil import
dependency. This is because its transportation and industrial sectors are still heavily
dependent on oil products. By simulating dynamic interplays between developments in
Malaysia’s oil sector and its economy sectors, this study explores the possible years of the
transformation and the extent to which it will be dependent on oil import. Four scenarios
related to enhanced oil recovery, exploration and production investment, subsidy
elimination and technology advances are considered for the simulation. In isolation, the
subsidy elimination scenario provides the best result. However, if all scenarios are
considered simultaneously, an undesired effect emerges. The earliest that Malaysia is
expected to become a net oil-importing country is 2012 and the latest is 2021. Malaysia’s
dependence on oil imports is expected to continue increasing. In all scenarios, the shares of
oil import in the total supply rise to above 90% in 2030, with the highest share at 97%.
Keywords: net oil importer; oil import dependence; energy security; simulation; Malaysia
Abbreviations:
API: American Petroleum Institute L: Litre
BAU: Business as usual (scenario) MMBOE: Million barrels of oil equivalent
bbl/d: barrel per day MMSTB: Million stock tank barrels
OPEN ACCESS
